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NEWS ANALYSIS -- 5 Reasons SMRR Swept the Council Race
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By Jorge Casuso January 21, 2025 -- The swearing in on Monday of President Donald Trump signaled a conservative turn reflected in election results nationwide and, to a lesser extent, in Santa Monica. On November 5, the city's electorate joined a large majority of Californians who voted to crack down on crime and in LA County helped defeat liberal District Attorney George Gascon. The pro public safety trend, however, didn't translate to the highly anticipated race for four City Council seats that determined control of local government and shattered spending records. That race was easily swept by a "United" slate backed by Santa Monica's liberal establishment that opposed Prop 36, a statewide measure imposing stiffer penalties for some repeat offenders, and endorsed Gascon. Here, in no particular order, are five reasons Councilmembers Dan Hall, Ellis Raskin, Barry Snell and Natalya Zernitskaya handily defeated a pro-law enforcement slate that included two incumbents, giving the city's liberal establishment a 6 to 1 Council super-majority. 1. Santa Monicans for Renters' Rights (SMRR) -- along with its allies, the local Democratic Club and hotel workers union -- remains the dominant force in local politics. Over more than four decades, SMRR has built a brand name among renters, the dominant voting block in a the city of some 93,000 residents. The organization that ushered in rent control in 1978 has continuously honed its message and, with the help of its political allies, has built a well-oiled political machine that knows how to deliver the vote. As a result, for 40 years in a row at least four of the seven City Councilmembers were first elected with SMRR's backing. The only exception was in 2020, when widespread looting during Memorial Day protests and the coronavirus shutdown led to a revolt at the polls that ousted three SMRR-backed incumbents, as many in one race as had been defeated in the past 26 years ("Santa Monica Voters Usher in New Era," November 6, 2020). 2. The campaign mounted by SMRR's opponents failed to tap into the anxiety and fear of crime felt by many Santa Monica voters. Despite raising a record $645,180 -- $539,820 raised by the newly formed Santa Monicans for a Real Positive Future -- the pro law enforcement "Safer" slate fell far short of retaining even one seat on the Council. The campaign generally ignored the rival slate's opposition of Prop 36, which won in Santa Monica with 54 percent of the vote, and its support of Gascon, who was defeated by tough-on-crime candidate Nathan Hochman by the same margin ("How Santa Monica Voted," January 6, 2025). It also failed to focus on the pro-development slate's support of a State law that allows a 10-unit apartment building to be built on single-family lots ("Homeowners Try to Get Out Urgent Message," October 18, 2024). 3. Negative campaigning by the liberal establishment paid off. In 2022, a hard-hitting campaign to unseat incumbent Lana Negrete would have succeeded had SMRR and the local Democratic Club backed the same slate; instead they failed to agree on one of the three candidates, splitting the vote. This time, the liberal establishment was united, and the slate's supporters mounted another hard-hitting campaign, this time against Mayor Phil Brock and Councilmember Oscar de la Torre. Using the local press, mailers, text messages and Council appearances, opponents of the "Safer" slate alleged that the incumbents intended to roll back rent control and that de la Torre had made an anti-Semitic remark five years earlier ("Behind the Efforts to Unseat de la Torre," October 31, 2024). The strategy worked, especially the hits against de la Torre, who denied having made the comment, which was not recorded. Neither de la Torre nor Brock came close to regaining the seats they had won in 2020. 4. It's hard to run on change when you're the incumbent. The "Safer" slate -- which also included political newcomers Vivian Roknian and John Putnam -- hammered home the message that crime and homelessness were the most pressing problems facing Santa Monica. But it's difficult to persuade voters that you're going to fix a worsening crisis when you've been in power for most of the past four years. It also doesn't help that the Police and Fire unions didn't back the full "Safer" slate. Instead of Putnam, they backed Rent Control Chair Erika Lesley. If the hope was that she would siphon SMRR votes, it may have backfired. Leslie won more than 9,000 votes, with many of those coming from voters who took the advice of the public safety unions. 5. Santa Monice Voted the Party Line. The Democratic Party rules in Santa Monica, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 4 to 1, and they came out in numbers to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, who won with 77 percent of the vote. U.S. Congressman Adam Schiff won a Senate seat with 78 percent of the vote, U.S. Congressman Ted Lieu was reelected with 79 percent and State Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur retained his seat with 77 percent of the vote. Since many voters don't generally follow local politics, they tend to vote the party line, from the top to the bottom of the ticket. And the LA County Democratic Party, along with the local Democratic Club, endorsed the slate that now controls the City Council. |
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