Assembly Race Heats Up

By Jorge Casuso

April 11 -- In a contest where four of the five candidates are from Santa Monica, the race for the 41st Assembly District seat held by Fran Pavley is promising to come down to the wire.

With less than 60 days left before the June 6 primaries, candidates are busy amassing money, lining up endorsements and looking for votes outside their home turf, according to sources close to the campaigns.

While the seat is considered safe for Democrats, it is too close to handicap a race that inludes two office holders, a lawyer, a political consultant and a disabilities activist.

“To win, the candidates need to know who is going to vote for them and get-out-the-vote will be crucial,” said Sharon Gilpin, a political consultant in the area for nearly 15 years who has been following the race, but has “no dog in this fight.”

The candidates, she said, “have got to raise name identification in areas where they are not from, which is a tough thing to do.”

Where candidates stand on key issues will likely not be the deciding factor in one of California’s most politically active districts, which stretches along the coast from Santa Monica to west San Fernando Valley and parts of Ventura County, according to political observers.

In a race that could be decided by a few thousand votes, each of the candidates has made the environment and education key platforms in their campaigns, insiders said.

As a result, the battle could come down to one of assets and personalities, Gilpin said.

When it comes to money, Calabasas Mayor Barry Groveman, an environmental lawyer and the only candidate not from Santa Monica, is leading the pack, having raised nearly $650,000, some $250,000 of that in loans to his own campaign.

To win, Groveman will have to spend his money reaching voters outside of the northern stretches of the district, according to Gilpin.

“If you going strictly by the dough, Groveman would win,” Gilpin said. “But he’s got the least name identification. This is primarily a Westside (Los Angeles) race.”

A self-described “effective progressive,” Groveman said he is more interested in “running on results and not rhetoric” and points to his 26 years in politics as a reason he should get into office.

“The tone in Sacramento is that of too much political bickering,” said Groveman. “I think being a mayor makes a difference, and it shows the ability to solve problems.”

Groveman touts his work on many environmental issues that effect the Santa Monica area and has the endorsements of Santa Monica Mayor Bob Holbrook and Council member Herb Katz, as well as Ed Edelmen, the high-profile official on homelessness for the City.

Groveman also received the high-profile endorsement of U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein.

In an area he characterized as a “complicated district” with “an active electorate” and “a lot of voters,” Groveman is confident he has “a really nice financial edge.”

The other elected official on the primary ballot, Julia Brownley, has a strong base in Santa Monica and Malibu, where she has served 11 years on the school board and is currently its president.

Described by Gilpin as “the inside gal… with good consultants,” Brownley has amassed an impressive list of endorsements that include the backing of key labor, environmental and education groups.

“People know me and people trust me,” Brownley said.

The fact that State Senator Sheila Kuehl and California Assembly member Pavely back her shows that her campaign is building momentum, Brownley said.

Last month, Brownley snagged the coveted Santa Monica for Renters' Rights (SMRR) endorsement, which carries the backing of Santa Monica City Council members Richard Bloom, Ken Genser and Kevin McKeown , all SMRR members. (Council members Bobby Shriver and Pam O’Connor have not yet endorsed a candidate.)

Brownley also appears poised to capture the California Democratic nomination later this month, according to those close to her campaign.

With $350,000 in her campaign coffers, ranking her third among the five candidates in money raised, Brownley can likely count on extensive get-out-the-vote efforts by organizations whose endorsements she has won, Gilpin said.

Still, as with Groveman, it is expected that Brownley will need support outside of Santa Monica and West Los Angeles. “She has to win some of the Ventura votes to win,” said Gilpin.

While Brownley agrees, she believes she has an edge in an assembly district where one third of the residents are part of a school district she has been elected to represent three times, garnering between 17,500 and 19,500 votes.

“I think the reason I’m going to rise to the top is I have a strong base,” she said. “There’s a lot of people in the race, and I feel we need 25 to 30 percent to win, which is in the range of 20,000 votes.”

In addition to receiving key endorsements, Brownley’s campaign is run by Parke Skelton, who over the past two decades has helped cement SMRR’s control over local government.

“He’s known as the direct mail guy,” said former Mayor Dennis Zane, who, along with Skelton is Brownley’s co-campaign manager. “We’ve been collaborating for thirty years on these campaigns…and (Skelton) usually wins.”

Brownley is facing a stiff challenge on her home turf from another Santa Monican, Kelly Hayes-Raitt, who operates a political communications and community-organizing business and served on Santa Monica's Commission on the Status of Women.

The co-founder of the environmental group Heal the Bay and the former director of the Coalition for Clean Air, Hayes-Raitt may not have as much money as Groveman or as many endorsements as Brownley. What she has going for her, political insiders say, is her personality and a strong “ground game.”

“If this were a contest of personality, she would win,” said Gilpin, adding that Hayes-Raitt “seems to have the most effective ground game.”

With $250,000 in campaign funds and some key endorsements, including the influential backing of the Sierra Club, Hayes-Raitt is counting on strong grassroots support to win.

“I’m not the candidate that’s going to raise and spend the most, or the one that comes in on someone else’s coattails,” said Hayes-Raitt. “It’s a true grass-roots effort.”

Hayes-Raitt, who is the only candidate to agree to voluntary spending limits of $446,000, said that nearly 60 percent of her contributions have come from donations of $100 or less.

While it is important to represent the entire district, winning Santa Monica will not be the key, since it represents “only 27 percent of the district,” Hayes-Raitt said. As a result, each candidate will need a strong showing throughout the district to win.

Another Santa Monica resident vying to represent the district in Sacramento is a 35-year-old local attorney and teacher, Jonathon Levey, who lectures as a professor on business law at California State University, Channel Islands.

Although he entered the race late, Levey has amassed nearly a half million dollars, which he will likely need to build name recognition and address his key issues -- the environment, education and traffic.

“My goal between now and election day is to introduce myself and to listen to as many voters as possible,” Levey said.

While not a political insider, Levey has shown a penchant for fundraising and now needs to build an effective get-out-the-vote campaign to win, said Gilpin.

Trailing behind in fundraising and endorsements is Sean Casey O’Brien, a Democrat from Santa Monica who is a long-time disabled activist with cerebral palsy.

O’Brien has focused his campaign on education and rights for the disabled, and is currently working on a book to highlight their plight.

Coastal protections and air-quality control laws are also important to O’Brien, as is increasing tax revenues through a “split-roll” under which businesses would pay more in property taxes.

Whether the 41st Assembly District will elect the inside gal, the man with the money, the personality with the best ground game or another candidate, Gilpin said it should be “really fascinating,” to see how the race unfolds.

“You can’t distinguish the candidates on the issues, it all comes down to personalities,” said Gilpin.

Lookout staff writers contributed to this report