Second of three parts.

Safety Risk Is Not Like-For-Like Between the Cities

Mr. Cody Green, Chairman of the Santa Monica Police Officer's Association (SMPOA), has provided a directional analysis on how much Santa Monica should be spending on public safety.

His analysis was provided as a result of the absence of any other dedicated metrics or resourcing estimates. So, is Mr. Green’s analysis the last word on how much Santa Monica should be spending on public safety, specifically police?

No. But it provides directionally valid data points that align with both resident and business reality -- that our police resources are understaffed. That much is not in question.

Where Mr. Green’s comparative city analysis is not like-for-like is that it does not address the significantly heightened challenges of the Santa Monica safety environment that are, in their entirety, absent from the other jurisdictions. They include the ease of city ingress/egress from a major interstate freeway, the Metro rail, and the Metro bus. Increased Pier security requirements should also be added.

The freeway ingress/egress issue was central to the May 2020 looting of our downtown and continues to facilitate catalytic converter and other property crimes. The light rail service was launched on May 20, 2016 in Santa Monica.

An estimate of its direct impact on safety, especially in downtown locations, is included in the March 2021 report “Impacts of California Proposition 47 on crime in Santa Monica, California” completed by the Institute for the Quant Study -- Inclusion, Diversity, Equity.

Then there is the highly interrelated homeless issue. The County’s end-of-line Metro policies for the light rail and bus services use Santa Monica as a nightly disembarkation point for all homeless occupants of the transit system vehicles.

City Choices Are Rarely Accompanied by Comprehensive Cost/Benefit Analyses

Decades ago, the city decided to make tourism a key revenue generator and encouraged a massive new hotel building spree. This added to the already regional destination Santa Monica had become with the Promenade and Santa Monica Place. But no revenue is free, and with this visitor-driven revenue choice came the obvious need to increase public safety resource requirements.

In addition, the last 10 years added additional huge public safety challenges such as the extension of the Metro light rail into the heart of Santa Monica, at Santa Monica’s insistence! In addition, legislation impacting public safety (e.g. Props 47 and 57) and the heightened values of materials such as catalytic converter and street electrification components have incentivized property crimes, with a concomitant increase in gang activity in the city.

Homelessness and Transit

Contrary to the familiar City narrative, the homeless issue in Santa Monica is essentially about transient migration through the city from LA City and LA County (more on that below). Despite the nearly $10 million the City gives directly to homeless service providers, no audited data exists, thus it’s no surprise that the overall point-in-time (PIT) homeless count increased by 27% the year after commencement of light rail operations.

This overall increase masked the 40% explosion in the unsheltered share of the homeless population in the same period. Unsheltered homeless PIT population reached 63%, or 581 individuals in 2017, up 165 individuals from 2016’s 416 unsheltered individuals.

For comparison, the Santa Monica-managed PIT counts from 2010 to 2014 indicated that more than 50% of Santa Monica’s homeless PIT population was sheltered. The 2014 unsheltered total was 346. The step-change increase in unsheltered homeless was supercharged by the opening of the Metro light rail.

The unsheltered share of homeless total in the 2024 PIT count came in at 78%, an all-time high. The unsheltered total of 601 was also near the prior year highs despite an overall (but uncertain) drop in the total PIT count.

Why the confusion on the 2024 PIT facts? The PIT count is likely understated due to the changes in methodology and data discrepancies associated with the transfer of responsibility for the count to the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA).

Methodology changes included earlier start times and, as the Lookout noted in its June 28, 2024 summary of the count, the use of less than one-third the number of volunteer counters used in the prior Santa Monica-managed process. In addition, LASHA inexplicably used a 2023 PIT count starting point for Santa Monica that was exactly 100 individuals lower than Santa Monica’s official 2023 count.

But focusing exclusively on PIT counts completely masks the nature and scale of Santa Monica’s mobile homeless demographic. According to data included in the city’s Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) through 2020, around 5,000 to 6,000 new transient homeless individuals entered the city each year.

Given the annual PIT counts, the average duration of their stay was, at most, 1 to 2 months. It can be inferred that the light rail increased the throughput of transient homeless individuals by around 1,000 to 1,200 per year. The HMIS maintenance seems to have declined in 2020 and ended in 2021.

But focusing exclusively on PIT counts completely masks the nature and scale of Santa Monica’s highly mobile homeless demographic. According to data included in the city’s Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) through 2020, around 5,000 to 6,000 new transient homeless individuals entered the city each year.

Given the annual PIT counts, the average duration of their stay was, at most, 1 to 2 months. It can be inferred that the light rail increased the throughput of transient homeless individuals by around 1,000 to 1,200 per year. HMIS maintenance seems to have declined in 2020 and ended in 2021.

The mobility of this demographic was also acknowledged by the city in response to questions on 2022’s Homelessness Study. Obviously, homeless policies based on an assumption of a static population, when the reality is a highly transient population, will fail.

Homelessness, Drug Use and Public Safety

A key reason for the explosion of unsheltered homeless are the drug use rules enforced by many shelter operations. In its February 14, 2023 Proclamation of Local Emergency regarding the city’s homeless crisis, the city noted the prevalence of substance abuse at 75% of the homeless demographic.

This is reflected in the documented fact that Santa Monica is one of the top fentanyl death hotspots in LA county. Drugs are not free. The need to pay for these substances further incentivizes property and shoplifting crimes. Use of the drugs, combined with the city-reported overlapping 78% of the homeless population suffering metal health issues, it is a serious contributor to violent crime incidents.

Editor's note: Marc L. Verville is a Sunset Park resident who is Chair of the City's Audit Subcommittee. The ideas expressed in this Opinion piece are his own.

Next: PART III: A Path Forward

PART I: The Problem